A comprehensive extended SEIR model for hMPV transmission: Integrating co-infection and vaccination dynamics for Türkiye’s model

Abstract

Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) is a common respiratory virus that represents a major public health burden, especially in children, older adults, and immunocompromised patients. However, traditional compartmental models, which apply to single-pathogen transmission, do not always adequately characterize the complexity of co-infections and vaccination dynamics. Here, we extend a SEIR model with two more compartments: one for those coinfected with hMPV, one for those infected with respiratory viruses other than hMPV, and another compartment for the vaccinated. This complex frame allows a realistic representation of hMPV transmission and control interventions. As a numerical solution method, we use the finite difference method (FDM) to study the behavior of these nonlinear and coupled differential equations. This method breaks down the time evolution of each compartment and can be used to simulate disease dynamics under different public health intervention schemes, such as vaccination rates. Simulation shows that intensive vaccination would significantly decrease the peak of infections and expedite the epidemic's control, especially together with non-pharmaceutical interventions. The co-infection compartment shows how the simultaneous presence of overlapping infections can exacerbate the severity of an epidemic, emphasizing the need for combined control strategies. Our model is a useful tool for understanding hMPV epidemic in the presence of other pathogens, which helps estimate the efficacy of vaccination strategies. This biologically motivated model, coupled with a strong numerical solution, provides important information for health authorities in their quest to minimize the effects of the disease.